Posted by: thepinetree on 11/29/2017 09:06 AM
Updated by: thepinetree on 11/29/2017 04:04 PM
Expires: 01/01/2022 12:00 AM
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Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2017 Revised Up To 3.3%
Washington, DC...Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the third quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.0 percent. With this second estimate for the third quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the same; nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and private inventory investment were revised up from the prior estimate (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase
of 2.3 percent (revised) in the second. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of
U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.9 percent in the third quarter,
compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in the second quarter (table 1).
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, private inventory
investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and exports that were partly offset by a negative
contribution from residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of
GDP, decreased (table 2).
The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected an acceleration in private inventory
investment, a downturn in imports, and smaller decreases in state and local government spending and
in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in PCE, in nonresidential fixed
investment, and in exports.
Current-dollar GDP increased 5.5 percent, or $259.0 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $19,509.0
billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.1 percent, or $192.3 billion (table 1 and
table 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with
an increase of 0.9 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent,
compared with an increase of 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index
increased 1.4 percent, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent (appendix table A).
Updates to GDP
The percent change in real GDP was revised up from the advance estimate, reflecting upward revisions
to nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and private inventory
investment. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and
Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the
“Additional Information” section that follows.
Advance Estimate Second Estimate
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP 3.0 3.3
Current-dollar GDP 5.2 5.5
Real GDI … 2.5
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI … 2.9
Gross domestic purchases price index 1.8 1.8
PCE price index 1.5 1.5
For the second quarter of 2017, the percent change in real GDI was revised from 2.9 percent to 2.3
percent based on newly available second-quarter tabulations from the BLS Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages program.
Corporate Profits (table 12)
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital
consumption adjustment) increased $91.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of
$14.4 billion in the second quarter.
Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $60.6 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of $33.8 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased
$12.5 billion, compared with an increase of $59.1 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $18.6
billion, in contrast to a decrease of $10.8 billion. In the third quarter, receipts increased $23.1 billion,
and payments increased $4.6 billion.
* * *
Next release: December 21, 2017 at 8:30 A.M. EST
Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2017 (Third Estimate)
Corporate Profits: Third Quarter 2017 (Revised Estimate)
* * *
Release Dates in 2018
Estimate 2017: IV and annual 2018: I 2018: II 2018: III
Gross Domestic Product
Advance January 26 April 27 July 27 October 26
Second February 28 May 30 August 29 November 28
Third March 28 June 28 September 27 December 21
Corporate Profits
Preliminary … May 30 August 29 November 28
Revised March 28 June 28 September 27 December 21
Additional Information
Resources
Additional resources available at www.bea.gov:
• Stay informed about BEA developments by reading the BEA blog, signing up for BEA’s email
subscription service, or following BEA on Twitter @BEA_News.
• Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed in BEA’s Interactive Data Application.
• Access BEA data by registering for BEA’s Data Application Programming Interface (API).
• For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business.
• BEA's news release schedule
• NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts
Definitions
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy
less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal
consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and
government consumption expenditures and gross investment.
Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP.
In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. In practice, GDP and GDI differ
because they are constructed using largely independent source data. Real GDI is calculated by deflating
gross domestic income using the GDP price index as the deflator, and is therefore conceptually
equivalent to real GDP.
Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is,
at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”
Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.
The gross domestic purchases price index measures the prices of final goods and services purchased by
U.S. residents.
The personal consumption expenditure price index measures the prices paid for the goods and services
purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons.”
Profits from current production, referred to as corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment
(IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj) in the NIPAs, is a measure of the net income of
corporations before deducting income taxes that is consistent with the value of goods and services
measured in GDP. The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and depreciation
of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic measures
used in the national income and product accounts. Profits for domestic industries reflect profits for
all corporations located within the within the geographic borders of the United States. The rest-of-
the-world (ROW) component of profits is measured as the difference between profits received from ROW
and profits paid to ROW.
For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.
Statistical conventions
Annual rates. Quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR), unless
otherwise specified. Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For
detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”
Percent changes in quarterly series are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual
rates, unless otherwise specified. For details, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?”
Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index
numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2009). Quantity and price indexes are
calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent
periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). “Real” dollar series are calculated by
multiplying the published quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2009) and
then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels
are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding.
Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those
of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a “residual” line shows the difference
between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.
Updates to GDP
BEA releases three vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP: "Advance" estimates are
released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data
that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates
are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed
and more comprehensive data as they become available.
Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July. Annual updates generally cover at
least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available
major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts.
Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major
periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.
The table below shows the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real GDP between
different estimate vintages, without regard to sign.
Vintage Average Revision Without Regard to Sign
(percentage points, annual rates)
Advance to second 0.5
Advance to third 0.6
Second to third 0.2
Advance to latest 1.3
Note - Based on estimates from 1993 through 2016. For more information on GDP
updates, see Revision Information on the BEA Web site.
The larger average revision from the advance to the latest estimate reflects the fact that periodic
comprehensive updates include major statistical and methodological improvements.
Unlike GDP, an advance current quarterly estimate of GDI is not released because data on domestic
profits and on net interest of domestic industries are not available. For fourth quarter estimates, these
data are not available until the third estimate.
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