Posted by: thepinetree on 09/13/2023 04:25 PM
Updated by: thepinetree on 09/13/2023 04:25 PM
Expires: 01/01/2028 12:00 AM
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Fuel Prices Ignite Inflation Fears Again With Energy Index up 5.6% in August
Washington, DC...The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. Also contributing to the August monthly increase was continued advancement in the shelter index, which rose for the 40th consecutive month.
The energy index rose 5.6 percent in August as all the major energy component indexes increased. The food index increased 0.2 percent in August, as it did in July. The index for food at home increased 0.2 percent over the month while the index for food away from home rose 0.3 percent in August.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, following a 0.2-percent increase in July. Indexes which increased in August include rent, owners' equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, and personal care. The indexes for lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, and recreation were among those that decreased over the month. The all items index increased 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending August, a larger increase than the 3.2-percent increase for the 12 months ending in July. The all items less food and energy index rose 4.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 3.6 percent for the 12 months ending August, and the food index increased 4.3 percent over the last year.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average
|
Seasonally adjusted changes from preceding month |
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
ended
Aug. 2023 |
Feb.
2023 |
Mar.
2023 |
Apr.
2023 |
May
2023 |
Jun.
2023 |
Jul.
2023 |
Aug.
2023 |
| All items |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
3.7 |
| Food |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
4.3 |
| Food at home |
0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
3.0 |
| Food away from home(1) |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
6.5 |
| Energy |
-0.6 |
-3.5 |
0.6 |
-3.6 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
5.6 |
-3.6 |
| Energy commodities |
0.5 |
-4.6 |
2.7 |
-5.6 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
10.5 |
-4.2 |
| Gasoline (all types) |
1.0 |
-4.6 |
3.0 |
-5.6 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
10.6 |
-3.3 |
| Fuel oil(1) |
-7.9 |
-4.0 |
-4.5 |
-7.7 |
-0.4 |
3.0 |
9.1 |
-14.8 |
| Energy services |
-1.7 |
-2.3 |
-1.7 |
-1.4 |
0.4 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
-2.7 |
| Electricity |
0.5 |
-0.7 |
-0.7 |
-1.0 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
0.2 |
2.1 |
| Utility (piped) gas service |
-8.0 |
-7.1 |
-4.9 |
-2.6 |
-1.7 |
2.0 |
0.1 |
-16.5 |
| All items less food and energy |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
4.3 |
| Commodities less food and energy commodities |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
-0.1 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
| New vehicles |
0.2 |
0.4 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
2.9 |
| Used cars and trucks |
-2.8 |
-0.9 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
-0.5 |
-1.3 |
-1.2 |
-6.6 |
| Apparel |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
3.1 |
| Medical care commodities(1) |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
4.5 |
| Services less energy services |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
5.9 |
| Shelter |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
7.3 |
| Transportation services |
1.1 |
1.4 |
-0.2 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
10.3 |
| Medical care services |
-0.7 |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
0.0 |
-0.4 |
0.1 |
-2.1 |
Footnotes
(1) Not seasonally adjusted. |
Food
The food index rose 0.2 percent in August, as it did in the previous month. The index for food at
home increased 0.2 percent over the month, after rising 0.3 percent in July. The six major grocery
store food group indexes were split over the month, with three increases and three decreases. The
index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.8 percent in August as the index for pork increased
2.2 percent. The index for other food at home increased 0.2 percent over the month and the index for
cereals and bakery products rose 0.5 percent.
The index for dairy and related products decreased 0.4 percent in August after increasing 0.5 percent
in July. The fruit and vegetables index declined 0.2 percent over the month, as did the nonalcoholic
beverages index.
The food away from home index rose 0.3 percent in August. The index for limited service meals rose
0.3 percent over the month, and the index for full service meals increased 0.2 percent.
The food at home index rose 3.0 percent over the last 12 months. The index for cereals and bakery
products rose 6.0 percent over the 12 months ending in August. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs
index was unchanged over the year. The remaining major grocery store food groups posted increases
ranging from 0.3 percent (dairy and related products) to 4.8 percent (nonalcoholic beverages).
The index for food away from home rose 6.5 percent over the last year. The index for limited service
meals rose 6.7 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for full service meals rose 5.2 percent
over the same period.
Energy
The energy index rose 5.6 percent in August after increasing 0.1 percent in July. The gasoline index
increased 10.6 percent in August, following a 0.2-percent increase in the previous month. (Before
seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 5.9 percent in August.)
Other energy components also increased in August. The index for electricity rose 0.2 percent in August,
after decreasing 0.7 percent in July. The natural gas index increased 0.1 percent over the month,
following a 2.0-percent increase in July. The index for fuel oil also rose in August, increasing 9.1
percent.
Despite the August monthly increases, the energy index fell 3.6 percent over the past 12 months. The
gasoline index decreased 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, while the natural gas index fell 16.5
percent, and the fuel oil index fell 14.8 percent over the span. In contrast, the index for electricity
rose 2.1 percent over the last year.
All items less food and energy
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, after rising 0.2 percent in
July. The shelter index increased 0.3 percent over the month, after rising 0.4 percent in each of the
preceding 2 months. The index for rent rose 0.5 percent in August, and the index for owners' equivalent
rent increased 0.4 percent over the month. The lodging away from home index decreased 3.0 percent in
August, its third consecutive decrease.
The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food
and energy. Among the other indexes that rose in August was the index for motor vehicle insurance,
which increased 2.4 percent after rising 2.0 percent the preceding month. The indexes for airline
fares, personal care, new vehicles, and household furnishings and operations also increased in August.
The medical care index rose 0.2 percent in August, after falling 0.2 percent the previous month. The
index for hospital services increased 0.7 percent over the month, and the index for physicians'
services rose 0.1 percent. The prescription drugs index rose 0.4 percent in August.
The index for used cars and trucks fell 1.2 percent in August, after decreasing 1.3 percent in July.
The recreation index declined 0.2 percent over the month, and the communication index declined 0.1
percent.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 4.3 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter
index increased 7.3 percent over the last year, accounting for over 70 percent of the total increase
in all items less food and energy. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include
motor vehicle insurance (+19.1 percent), recreation (+3.5 percent), personal care (+5.8 percent), and
new vehicles (+2.9 percent).
Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.7 percent over the last 12 months
to an index level of 307.026 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent prior to
seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.4 percent
over the last 12 months to an index level of 301.551 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased
0.6 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 3.7 percent over the last
12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please
note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.
_______________
The Consumer Price Index for September 2023 is scheduled to be released on Thursday, October 12, 2023,
at 8:30 a.m. (ET).
Technical Note
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices paid by consumers for goods
and services. The CPI reflects spending patterns for each of two population groups: all
urban consumers and urban wage earners and clerical workers. The all urban consumer group
represents about 93 percent of the total U.S. population. It is based on the expenditures
of almost all residents of urban or metropolitan areas, including professionals, the self
-employed, the poor, the unemployed, and retired people, as well as urban wage earners
and clerical workers. Not included in the CPI are the spending patterns of people living
in rural nonmetropolitan areas, farming families, people in the Armed Forces, and those
in institutions, such as prisons and mental hospitals. Consumer inflation for all urban
consumers is measured by two indexes, namely, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U).
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) is based on
the expenditures of households included in the CPI-U definition that meet two requirements:
more than one-half of the household's income must come from clerical or wage occupations,
and at least one of the household's earners must have been employed for at least 37 weeks
during the previous 12 months. The CPI-W population represents about 29 percent of the
total U.S. population and is a subset of the CPI-U population.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation, doctors'
and dentists' services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day
living. Prices are collected each month in 75 urban areas across the country from about
6,000 housing units and approximately 22,000 retail establishments (department stores,
supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other types of stores and service
establishments). All taxes directly associated with the purchase and use of items are
included in the index. Prices of fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in
all 75 locations. Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month
in the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas. Prices of most
goods and services are obtained by personal visit, telephone call, web, or app collection by
the Bureau's trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each location are
aggregated using weights, which represent their importance in the spending of the
appropriate population group. Local data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average.
For the CPI-U and CPI-W, separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of
the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size classes, and for 23
selected local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences in the level of prices among
cities; they only measure the average change in prices for each area since the base period.
For the C-CPI-U, data are issued only at the national level. The CPI-U and CPI-W are
considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in preliminary form and subject
to three subsequent quarterly revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For most of the CPI-U and
the CPI-W, the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100. The reference base for the C-CPI-U is
December 1999 equals 100. An increase of 7 percent from the reference base, for example,
is shown as 107.000. Alternatively, that relationship can also be expressed as the price
of a base period market basket of goods and services rising from $100 to $107.
Sampling Error in the CPI
The CPI is a statistical estimate that is subject to sampling error because it is based
upon a sample of retail prices and not the complete universe of all prices. BLS calculates
and publishes estimates of the 1-month, 2-month, 6-month, and 12-month percent change
standard errors annually for the CPI-U. These standard error estimates can be used to
construct confidence intervals for hypothesis testing. For example, the estimated standard
error of the 1-month percent change is 0.03 percent for the U.S. all items CPI. This means
that if we repeatedly sample from the universe of all retail prices using the same
methodology, and estimate a percentage change for each sample, then 95 percent of these
estimates will be within 0.06 percent of the 1-month percentage change based on all retail
prices. For example, for a 1-month change of 0.2 percent in the all items CPI-U, we are 95
percent confident that the actual percent change based on all retail prices would fall
between 0.14 and 0.26 percent. For the latest data, including information on how to use
the estimates of standard error, see www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/variance-estimates/home.htm.
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from 1 month to another are usually expressed as percent changes
rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level
of the index in relation to its base period, while percent changes are not. The following
table shows an example of using index values to calculate percent changes:
Item A Item B Item C
Year I 112.500 225.000 110.000
Year II 121.500 243.000 128.000
Change in index points 9.000 18.000 18.000
Percent change 9.0/112.500 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/225.000 x 100 = 8.0 18.0/110.000 x 100 = 16.4
Use of Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) produces both unadjusted and seasonally adjusted data.
Seasonally adjusted data are computed using seasonal factors derived by the X-13ARIMA-SEATS
seasonal adjustment method. These factors are updated each February, and the new factors are
used to revise the previous 5 years of seasonally adjusted data. The factors are available
at www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/seasonal-adjustment/seasonal-factors-2022.xlsx. For more
information on data revision scheduling, please see the Factsheet on Seasonal Adjustment at
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/questions-and-answers.htm and the Timeline of Seasonal
Adjustment Methodological Changes at
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/timeline-seasonal-adjustment-methodology-changes.htm.
For analyzing short-term price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually
preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and
in about the same magnitude every year-such as price movements resulting from weather events,
production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales. This allows data users to focus on
changes that are not typical for the time of year. The unadjusted data are of primary interest
to consumers concerned about the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data are also used
extensively for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements and pension
plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer Price Index before adjustment for
seasonal variation. BLS advises against the use of seasonally adjusted data in escalation
agreements because seasonally adjusted series are revised annually.
Intervention Analysis
The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses intervention analysis seasonal adjustment (IASA) for some
CPI series. Sometimes extreme values or sharp movements can distort the underlying seasonal
pattern of price change. Intervention analysis seasonal adjustment is a process by which the
distortions caused by such unusual events are estimated and removed from the data prior to
calculation of seasonal factors. The resulting seasonal factors, which more accurately represent
the seasonal pattern, are then applied to the unadjusted data.
For example, this procedure was used for the motor fuel series to offset the effects of the 2009
return to normal pricing after the worldwide economic downturn in 2008. Retaining this outlier
data during seasonal factor calculation would distort the computation of the seasonal portion
of the time series data for motor fuel, so it was estimated and removed from the data prior to
seasonal adjustment. Following that, seasonal factors were calculated based on this "prior
adjusted" data. These seasonal factors represent a clearer picture of the seasonal pattern in
the data. The last step is for motor fuel seasonal factors to be applied to the unadjusted data.
For the seasonal factors introduced for January 2022, BLS adjusted 72 series using intervention
analysis seasonal adjustment, including selected food and beverage items, motor fuels, electricity,
and vehicles.
Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Indexes
Seasonally adjusted data, including the U.S. city average all items index levels, are subject to
revision for up to 5 years after their original release. Every year, economists in the CPI
calculate new seasonal factors for seasonally adjusted series and apply them to the last 5 years
of data. Seasonally adjusted indexes beyond the last 5 years of data are considered to be final
and not subject to revision. For January 2022, revised seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted
indexes for 2017 to 2021 were calculated and published. For series which are directly adjusted
using the Census X-13ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment software, the seasonal factors for 2021 will
be applied to data for 2022 to produce the seasonally adjusted 2022 indexes. Series which are
indirectly seasonally adjusted by summing seasonally adjusted component series have seasonal
factors which are derived and are therefore not available in advance.
Determining Seasonal Status
Each year the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain statistical
criteria. Using these criteria, BLS economists determine whether a series should change its
status from "not seasonally adjusted" to "seasonally adjusted", or vice versa. If any of the 81
components of the U.S. city average all items index change their seasonal adjustment status from
seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not seasonally adjusted data will be used in the
aggregation of the dependent series for the last 5 years, but the seasonally adjusted indexes
before that period will not be changed. For 2022, 22 of the 81 components of the U.S. city
average all items index are seasonally adjusted.
Contact Information
For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information and
Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or cpi_info@bls.gov.
For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit
www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm or contact the CPI seasonal adjustment section at
202-691-6968 or cpiseas@bls.gov.
If you are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access
telecommunications relay services.
Table 1. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by expenditure category
Table 2. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, by detailed expenditure category
Table 3. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U. S. city average, special aggregate indexes
Table 4. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): Selected areas, all items index
Table 5. Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, all items index
Table 6. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category, 1-month analysis table
Table 7. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category, 12-month analysis table
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