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Posted by: thepinetree on 07/30/2020 07:19 AM Updated by: thepinetree on 07/30/2020 07:19 AM
Expires: 01/01/2025 12:00 AM
:

Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 Drops 32.9%, U.S. Economy Shrinks By Almost a Third

Washington, DC...Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) and Annual Update. Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 5.0 percent.




The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see "Source Data for the Advance Estimate" on page 2). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 27, 2020.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on the Second-Quarter 2020 GDP Estimate

The decline in second quarter GDP reflected the response to COVID-19, as "stay-at-home" orders issued in March and April were partially lifted in some areas of the country in May and June, and government pandemic assistance payments were distributed to households and businesses. This led to rapid shifts in activity, as businesses and schools continued remote work and consumers and businesses canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2020 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see the Technical Note.

The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by an increase in federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased (table 2).

The decrease in PCE reflected decreases in services (led by health care) and goods (led by clothing and footwear). The decrease in exports primarily reflected a decrease in goods (led by capital goods). The decrease in private inventory investment primarily reflected a decrease in retail (led by motor vehicle dealers). The decrease in nonresidential fixed investment primarily reflected a decrease in equipment (led by transportation equipment), while the decrease in residential investment primarily reflected a decrease in new single-family housing.

Current‑dollar GDP decreased 34.3 percent, or $2.15 trillion, in the second quarter to a level of $19.41 trillion. In the first quarter, GDP decreased 3.4 percent, or $186.3 billion (table 1 and table 3).

The price index for gross domestic purchases decreased 1.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of 1.4 percent in the first quarter (table 4). The PCE price index decreased 1.9 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index decreased 1.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 1.6 percent.

Personal Income and Outlays

Current-dollar personal income increased $1.39 trillion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $193.4 billion in the first quarter. The increase in personal income was more than accounted  for by an increase in personal current transfer receipts (notably, government social benefits) that was partly offset by declines in compensation and proprietors' income (table 8). Additional information on several factors impacting personal income can be found in "Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income."

Disposable personal income increased $1.53 trillion, or 42.1 percent, in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $157.8 billion, or 3.9 percent, in the first quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 44.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent.

Personal outlays decreased $1.57 trillion, after decreasing $232.5 billion. The decrease in outlays was led by a decrease in PCE for services.

Personal saving was $4.69 trillion in the second quarter, compared with $1.59 trillion in the first quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 25.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with 9.5 percent in the first quarter.

Source Data for the Advance Estimate

Information on the source data and key assumptions used in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.

Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts

The estimates released today also reflect the results of the Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). The timespan of the update is the first quarter of 2015 through the fourth quarter of 2019 for estimates of real GDP and its major components, and the first quarter of 1999 through the fourth quarter of 2019 for estimates of income and saving. The reference year remains 2012. More information on the 2020 Annual Update is included in the May Survey of Current Business article, "GDP and the Economy."

For the period of expansion from the second quarter of 2009 through the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, the same as previously published.

With today's release, most NIPA tables are available through BEA's Interactive Data application on the BEA Web site (www.bea.gov). See "Information on Updates to the National Income and Product Accounts" for the complete table release schedule and a summary of results, which includes a discussion of methodology changes. A table showing the major current‑dollar revisions and their sources for each component of GDP, national income, and personal income is also provided. The August 2020 Survey of Current Business will contain an article describing the update in more detail.

Previously published estimates, which are superseded by today's release, are found in BEA's archives.

Updates for the First Quarter of 2020

For the first quarter of 2020, real GDP is estimated to have decreased 5.0 percent (table 1), the same decrease as previously published. An upward revision to private inventory investment was offset by a downward revision to exports and an upward revision to imports.

Real GDI is now estimated to have decreased 2.5 percent in the first quarter (table 1); in the previously published estimates, first-quarter GDI was estimated to have decreased 4.4 percent. The leading contributor to the upward revision was compensation, based primarily on new first-quarter wage and salary estimates from the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

The price index for gross domestic purchases is now estimated to have increased 1.4 percent in the first quarter, 0.3 percentage point lower than previously published (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.3 percent, the same increase as previously published. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than previously published.





First Quarter 2020
Previous Estimate Revised
(Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP -5.0 -5.0
Current-dollar GDP -3.4 -3.4
Real GDI -4.4 -2.5
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI -4.7 -3.7
Gross domestic purchases price index 1.7 1.4
PCE price index 1.3 1.3
PCE price index excluding food and energy 1.7 1.6

Bringing Together National, Industry, and State GDP Statistics

BEA is speeding up the release of its industry and state GDP statistics to coordinate more closely with the quarterly estimates of national GDP. Starting on September 30, industry GDP statistics will be issued on the same day – and in the same news release – as the third estimate of national GDP. State-by-state GDP statistics will follow in a separate news release within two days. These three major dimensions of GDP will be synchronized to cover the same quarter, giving users a fuller and more timely view of the U.S. economy.

* * *

Next release, August 27, 2020 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate)
Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate)

Source = BEA


Comments - Make a comment
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Winning?
Posted on: 2020-07-30 07:47:09   By: Anonymous
 
Trump's only plus for the last 3 1/2 years has been his claim of a strong stock market.
Unfortunately, his base doesn't look at all the other economic indicators.
The Federal deficit is one of the scariest things right now.
Can't blame Obama.
Can't blame the virus.
Trump won't own anything that's a negative reflection of his administration.


[Reply ]

    Re: Winning?
    Posted on: 2020-07-30 08:00:30   By: Anonymous
     
    Well said!

    [Reply ]

    Re: Winning?
    Posted on: 2020-07-30 08:08:09   By: Anonymous
     
    ^ This

    [Reply ]

    Re: Winning?
    Posted on: 2020-07-30 08:09:49   By: Anonymous
     
    Yep, what happened to the Republican deficit hawks who were always so vocal in the past?

    [Reply ]

    Re: Winning?
    Posted on: 2020-07-30 08:37:31   By: Anonymous
     
    Obama out spent all previous presidents in US history combined.

    The current economy is in the tank due to blue state governors conspiring to shut down all commerce for the purposes of harming Trump politically.

    Anyone with two brain cells to rub together can see that.

    [Reply ]

      Re: Winning?
      Posted on: 2020-07-30 08:41:30   By: Anonymous
       
      ^STFU blind Trumpster

      [Reply ]

      Re: Winning?
      Posted on: 2020-07-30 08:42:19   By: Anonymous
       
      Then what's going on in all the red states?

      [Reply ]

        Re: Winning?
        Posted on: 2020-07-30 09:27:10   By: Anonymous
         
        The red states are doing much better both mentally and economically. These blue states are showing just how far they will go to punish President Trump.

        [Reply ]

          Re: Winning?
          Posted on: 2020-07-30 09:44:23   By: Anonymous
           
          Huh? How long are you going to believe in some massive conspiracy rather than Trump’s incompetence?



          [Reply ]

            Re: Winning?
            Posted on: 2020-07-30 10:22:52   By: Anonymous
             
            Unfortunately the choice is between Trump and Biden. Can you with a straight face say Biden is more competent than Trump.

            Even those of us who loath much of what Trump does, says or how he presents himself the thought of Biden actually becoming president is horrifying

            [Reply ]

              Re: Winning?
              Posted on: 2020-07-30 10:38:02   By: Anonymous
               
              Wholeheartedly, Biden is better!

              [Reply ]

                Re: Winning?
                Posted on: 2020-07-30 12:03:44   By: Anonymous
                 
                You must have slipped and hit your head this morning

                [Reply ]

                  Re: Winning?
                  Posted on: 2020-07-30 12:32:48   By: Anonymous
                   
                  Trump is no longer some wild outsider, and it’s clear he doesn’t have what it takes to be the leader of the free world.

                  Trump would never respect his supporters in a real life interaction. He’s never used a shovel or pounded a nail. He inherited an obscene amount of money from his father (a slum lord who built all his buildings using money from government programs), and still managed to lose most of it.

                  He paid someone to take his SATs.

                  Maryanne Trump Berry, the president's sister, wasn't exactly supportive of his 2016 campaign. "He's a clown," Berry, a retired federal judge, told Mary Trump, according to the book. "This will never happen." Mary Trump said she told her aunt that she couldn't believe people were buying his claim that he was a self-made man, and she questioned what he'd ever accomplished on his own. "Well," her aunt replied, "he has had five bankruptcies."

                  He even cheats at golf!
                  https://golf.com/lifestyle/celebrities/how-why-president-trump-cheats-golf-playing-tiger-woods/


                  [Reply ]

                    Re: Winning?
                    Posted on: 2020-07-30 13:10:56   By: Anonymous
                     
                    Judge him by the content of his character, that seems reasonable.

                    [Reply ]

                    Re: Winning?
                    Posted on: 2020-07-30 15:16:39   By: Anonymous
                     
                    dump is a pu$$y. ignoramus. My 2 teenage sons could work his fat, weak, lazy butt into the ground.

                    [Reply ]

                      Re: Winning?
                      Posted on: 2020-07-30 18:40:59   By: Anonymous
                       
                      No doubt they could hog tie him, tie his ass to a rail, and haul him to the sewer treatment plant where he belongs.

                      [Reply ]

                        Re: Winning?
                        Posted on: 2020-07-31 12:42:15   By: Anonymous
                         
                        I work at a sewer plant! No way we would take him!

                        [Reply ]

          Re: Winning?
          Posted on: 2020-07-30 10:14:38   By: Anonymous
           
          Yeah, tell that to all the Floridians and Texans burying loved ones.

          [Reply ]

          Re: Winning? Red states are mental
          Posted on: 2020-07-30 11:39:08   By: Anonymous
           
          pretty broad statement given the fact that Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Alabama have some of the highest infection and death rates in the US.

          [Reply ]

          Re: Winning?
          Posted on: 2020-07-30 18:44:25   By: Anonymous
           
          You are one helluva bullsheeiter. Following right on the trump train lies and falsifications. To hell with you and those like you. If you begin to suffer from trump’s failure, don’t blame anyone else, you are an accessory to his failures, crimes and incompetence..

          [Reply ]

      Re: Winning?
      Posted on: 2020-07-30 10:13:14   By: Anonymous
       
      Silly, Trumpster. The national debt rose by $3 trillion under President Obama because of tax and spending policies that were already in place, ones created during the Bush years. In addition, the Great Recession drove up spending on safety net programs such as Medicaid and food stamps without the president or Congress doing a thing. You really need to stop getting your news in one liners and try doing a little independent research.

      [Reply ]

        Re: Winning?
        Posted on: 2020-07-30 13:16:23   By: Anonymous
         
        Well my friend that was well stated. Thanks

        [Reply ]

      Re: Winning?
      Posted on: 2020-07-30 11:16:34   By: Anonymous
       
      Obama outspent, and then along came the train wreck of the Trump Administration.

      [Reply ]

      Re: Winning?
      Posted on: 2020-07-30 16:16:39   By: Anonymous
       
      That is real funny, you expect anyone to believe your post? Nice try., though.

      [Reply ]

No Subject
Posted on: 2020-07-30 07:50:15   By: Anonymous
 
Looks like a great time to stop giving people that unemployment lifeline! (The sarcasm should be obvious)

[Reply ]

No Subject
Posted on: 2020-07-30 07:57:17   By: Anonymous
 
Annnnnddddd, here's Trump’s big distraction from the terrible economic news:

Donald Trump has ratcheted up his claims that increased mail-in voting will lead to election fraud, and appears to be making a call to delay November’s presidential election.

Donald J. Trump
(@realDonaldTrump)
"With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???"


Even by Trump’s standards, it is truly unprecedented for a sitting American president to call a US election “the most inaccurate & fraudulent election in history” in advance and float the idea that the country cannot carry them out safely.

[Reply ]

    Re:
    Posted on: 2020-07-30 08:34:28   By: Anonymous
     
    And that he's not at John Lewis's funeral with the last 3 presidents.

    [Reply ]

No Subject
Posted on: 2020-07-30 08:26:08   By: Anonymous
 
151,000 Americans dead, including Herman Cain. (Who likely contracted covid at Trump’s Tulsa rally).

[Reply ]

    Re:
    Posted on: 2020-07-30 08:42:27   By: Anonymous
     
    Herman Cain died?

    [Reply ]

      Re:
      Posted on: 2020-07-30 08:47:38   By: Anonymous
       
      Yes, from Covid-19.

      [Reply ]

      Re:
      Posted on: 2020-07-30 10:18:27   By: Anonymous
       
      Yesterday, announced this morning. As another has already said, from COVID. Sad but almost more than a little ironic as the co-founder of "Black Voices for Trump."

      [Reply ]

      Re:
      Posted on: 2020-07-30 18:48:35   By: Anonymous
       
      Yep, he attended trump’s Tulsa rally without a face mask, and like a large number of others who were there, got the bug. That’s what they get for listening to the bag of lies, Donald J Trump..

      [Reply ]

No Subject
Posted on: 2020-07-30 09:35:38   By: Anonymous
 
Good, I hope this country completely collapses. It's not like there is any real opportunity or a viable future for most people here anyway.

[Reply ]

    Re: Distraction from MAGA
    Posted on: 2020-07-30 09:43:25   By: Anonymous
     
    Besides delaying the election, don't forget those mysterious seeds from China.
    Wuhan flu. Chinese imperialism in the South China Sea. Embassy spying.
    What else?
    Invasion of the body snatches pods.

    [Reply ]

      Re: Distraction from MAGA
      Posted on: 2020-07-30 10:21:14   By: Anonymous
       
      Along with his new favorite doctor who believes that we can give birth to alien babies through astral projection relations. Guess that's how someone like Trump can explain all those extramarital affairs.

      [Reply ]

        Re: Distraction from MAGA
        Posted on: 2020-07-30 10:31:49   By: Anonymous
         
        Delay the election. Let’s move it up a couple of months. So we can vote out this impeached criminal idiot ..

        [Reply ]

          Re: Distraction from MAGA
          Posted on: 2020-07-30 10:34:11   By: Anonymous
           
          Remember the Titanic . The trump administration is already sitting on the bottom.

          [Reply ]

      Re: Distraction from MAGA
      Posted on: 2020-07-30 13:22:52   By: Anonymous
       
      Works for me given that Trump was going to "drain the swamp" and "MAGA". As a lifelong Republican I am just a little saddened by him and the demise of my party.

      [Reply ]

        Re: Distraction from MAGA
        Posted on: 2020-07-30 14:03:54   By: Anonymous
         
        Trump didn’t drain a swamp, he created a cesspool.

        [Reply ]

No Subject
Posted on: 2020-07-30 15:12:30   By: Anonymous
 
Federalist Society co-founder calls for Trump's impeachment
“Until recently, I had taken as political hyperbole the Democrats’ assertion that President Trump is a fascist,” Steven Calabresi, a law professor and co-founder of the Federalist Society, an influential conservative organization, writes in a new op-ed in the New York Times.

But President Trump’s tweet this morning seeking a postponement of the 2020 election “is fascistic and is itself grounds for the president’s immediate impeachment again by the House of Representatives and his removal from office by the Senate,” Calabresi wrote.

“President Trump needs to be told by every Republican in Congress that he cannot postpone the federal election. Doing so would be illegal, unconstitutional and without precedent in American history. Anyone who says otherwise should never be elected to Congress again,” he added.

[Reply ]

Good?
Posted on: 2020-07-30 16:56:56   By: Anonymous
 
A crash in the economy , brought about by trump’s fiddling as the nation caught the pandemic, could result in a lot of reduced real estate market values, giving the investment class and corporations investments to make them richer....buying properties at rock bottom prices. Good for the rich.
Of course, millions in the middle may never recover, and millions of poor will have no hope at all. If the nation is to recover its former prosperity, it is imperative that Republicans lose control of our national and local governments. Their idea that a rising tide lifts all boats is total hogwash, a trumpian style con job.

[Reply ]

Buckle up
Posted on: 2020-07-30 19:15:26   By: Anonymous
 
We are headed for a train wreck, the trump train wreck. Don’t fall for the okay doke amd Norse crap tru,p shovels. This nation will suffer more economic and health disaster as long as he in office. The man is batsheeit crazy to protect himself , stay out of jail, and protect his financial interests.

[Reply ]

    Re: Buckle up
    Posted on: 2020-07-30 19:27:09   By: Anonymous
     
    Horse crap trump shovels. Sorry for he typos. Facts remain the same.

    [Reply ]

      Re: Democrats (liberalism) Lost!!!
      Posted on: 2020-07-30 21:36:38   By: Anonymous
       
      Sounds like you liberals out there are starting to soil yourselves because of the chaos. I know it is such good news that Covid is king and the stock market tanked today. Someone once said, "America, love it or leave it" and you clowns are sounding like the sky is falling. I say, go into your basement until it is safe and your bell will be rung when it's all clear.

      [Reply ]

        Re: Democrats (liberalism) Lost!!!
        Posted on: 2020-07-31 05:28:22   By: Anonymous
         
        Trump in charge of the country, running it for almost 4 years.

        How could there be chaos?

        [Reply ]

        Re: Democrats (liberalism) Lost!!!
        Posted on: 2020-07-31 06:57:07   By: Anonymous
         
        Chaos is right out of trump’s playbook. He thrives on it, creating uncertainty, dissension, division, confusion, and general mistrust. To do this he uses lies, falsification , accusation, conspiracy theories, double talk, threats, unlawful conduct, vexatious litigation, delay tactics, dissembling issues, whining, boasting, exaggeration, tyrannical abuse of power.
        Most people know it will only get worse as long as trump and the current crop of Republican Senators stay in office

        [Reply ]

          Re: Democrats (liberalism) Lost!!!
          Posted on: 2020-07-31 07:03:35   By: Anonymous
           
          Not to mention innuendo, rumors, self serving speculation,.
          Like he said he had investigators checking and found proof that O was not born in Hawaii, and he would present the evidence soon. Never happened. He made crap up , made a big lie about it, and then let it fester in the the feeble minds of his cult followers.

          [Reply ]

        Re: Democrats (liberalism) Lost!!!
        Posted on: 2020-07-31 07:09:29   By: Anonymous
         
        The sky is falling? Wrong. What is falling is the economy, our national security, our nations standing around , employment, financial security of families, the number of people in the middle class, the ability of young people to climb the ladder to the American dream.
        Know what else is falling.....trump’s chances of staying in the Whitehouse. Falling fast.

        [Reply ]

Dumbacrats
Posted on: 2020-07-31 08:26:28   By: Anonymous
 
Joe Biden? Really?? Really??

[Reply ]


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