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Posted by: thepinetree on 06/13/2018 09:36 AM Updated by: thepinetree on 06/13/2018 09:36 AM
Expires: 01/01/2023 12:00 AM
:

Proposition 47 Linked to Increase in Non-Violent Crime

San Francisco, CA....Proposition 47, the state measure that reduced penalties for some property and drug crimes, did not lead to a rise in violent crime. However, larcenies did go up—driven by an increase in thefts from motor vehicles. Proposition 47 also helped reduce the state’s stubbornly high recidivism rates, but this is due in part to changes in law enforcement and prosecutorial practices.




These are the key findings of a new report, The Impact of Proposition 47 on Crime and Recidivism, released today by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC).

Passed by voters in 2014, Proposition 47 continued the state’s efforts to reduce incarceration. By the end of 2016, California’s prison and jail populations had dropped by more than 15,000 inmates, and the incarceration rate is now at levels not seen since the early 1990s.

While there was an uptick in the violent crime rate from 2014 to 2016, the report finds that this trend appears to have started before November 2014 and is due largely to unrelated changes in crime reporting. Regarding property crimes, Proposition 47 had no apparent impact on burglaries or auto thefts, but it did contribute to an increase in larcenies—such as theft from motor vehicles and shoplifting—which increased by roughly 9 percent, or about 135 more thefts per 100,000 residents. Thefts from motor vehicles account for about three-quarters of this increase.

“The increases in some property crimes associated with Proposition 47 highlight the need to identify and implement alternative, cost-effective crime-prevention strategies,” said Magnus Lofstrom, report co-author and PPIC senior fellow.

A goal of Proposition 47 was to lower the state’s high recidivism rates. The report finds that the measure did lead to lower recidivism rates among lower-level offenders, reducing their rearrest and reconviction rates by 1.8 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively, compared to similar offenders before the reform.

The report draws on statewide crime and arrest data provided by the California Department of Justice, as well as criminal justice data collected through the BSCC–PPIC Multi-County Study, a collaborative effort among the California Board of State and Community Corrections, PPIC, and a group of 12 California counties.

Crime Trends

California’s crime rates remain historically low. While violent crime rates increased by about 13 percent after Proposition 47, this trend appears to have preceded the reform—and was sparked by changes in crime reporting by the FBI and the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD).

The FBI widened its definition of sexual crimes in 2014, which added about eight more violent crimes per 100,000 residents. Accounting for this change reduces the 2014–16 increase in the violent crime rate from 13 to 10.7 percent. That same year, the LAPD reformed its crime reporting after revelations that it had underreported violent crimes. When PPIC researchers examined statewide trends without LAPD statistics, the increase in violent crime drops to 6.4 percent. When authors accounted for both the FBI’s expanded definition of sexual crimes and the LAPD’s revised crime reporting, the 2014–16 increase drops to 4.7 percent.

To determine whether Proposition 47 affected crime rates, the report compares crime rates in California to those of states that historically have had very similar crime trends. The increase in California’s violent crime rate was less than that of comparison states. The 9 percent rise in larcenies, however, contrasts with the decline in comparison states.

Jail Bookings

Overall, jail bookings in the 12 counties studied decreased from almost 60,000 in October 2014 to 55,400 one year later—a decline of about 8 percent. Bookings declined among all racial/ethnic groups, but declines were relatively larger for whites and Latinos than for African Americans.

The overall decline was driven by a reduction in bookings for Proposition 47 drug and property offenses, which include check forgery, drug possession, receiving stolen property, and theft. Bookings for these offenses dropped by about 38 percent, from roughly 14,600 in October 2014 to 9,100 in October 2015.

“Proposition 47 was a further step in prioritizing prison and jail space—one of the most costly correctional interventions—for higher-level offenders in California,” said Mia Bird, PPIC fellow and report co-author. Additional co-authors include PPIC research associates Brandon Martin and Viet Nguyen, and UC Berkeley professor Steven Raphael.

Recidivism

The two-year reconviction rate for individuals released under Proposition 47 was 46 percent—or 3.1 percentage points lower than their pre-reform counterparts. The two-year rearrest rate also declined, from 72.6 percent to 70.8 percent. Although recidivism rates dropped, it is not clear to what extent this is driven by reduced reoffending, or by reductions in arrests and prosecutions by law enforcement and district attorneys.

Proposition 47 also called for redirecting savings from reduced prison incarceration to treatment interventions. But the allocation of that money has only recently begun, so the initiative’s full impact on treatment and recidivism is still unknown.

ABOUT PPIC

The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. We are a public charity. We do not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor do we endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California.


Comments - Make a comment
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No Subject
Posted on: 2018-06-13 09:43:21   By: Anonymous
 
What a bunch of crap! Turn people lose so they can go right back out on the streets to do it all over again! Try it here, and your ass is going to hurt!

[Reply ]

    Re:
    Posted on: 2018-06-13 09:52:31   By: Anonymous
     
    As a Trumptard your ass must already be hurting

    [Reply ]

      Profanity
      Posted on: 2018-06-13 10:01:19   By: Anonymous
       
      Profanity

      [Reply ]

    Re:
    Posted on: 2018-06-13 14:57:01   By: Anonymous
     
    What did any of us expect? 78% of convicted felons are democrats. FACT
    Calif is even worse at a whopping 83%, FACT.
    I could not find the facts on our community,
    with all the meth-heads and potheads our local judges let out on bail because it's cheaper
    then locking them up, you can bet those figures are even higher.
    This is why we must vote people, to keep democrats out of office.
    President Trump has the economy rolling and unemployment at a all time low, let's keep it going.
    The democrats said the first thing they would do when they came in power would be to
    raise taxes. Just look at our fuel taxes, the highest in the Nation. I guess if you're a leech
    like most of the democrats, why care? They're just collecting Goc Assistance like normal and
    making the working stiff pay their way.
    Put a stop to it, vote Republican, and pick the best for the job.

    [Reply ]

dead fish on the banks and floating
Posted on: 2018-06-13 10:23:20   By: Anonymous
 
Hillary lost.


[Reply ]

    still a dead horse...but you morons keep beating it.
    Posted on: 2018-06-13 12:30:20   By: Anonymous
     
    Every time you mention hillary, another republican candidate's hopes die.

    Keep it up moron, idiots like you who have no other move but to blow this tired dogwhistle, are telegraphing your weakness.

    That's right, you're weak. Scared and weak.

    Enjoy that.

    [Reply ]

      Re: still a dead horse...but you morons keep beating it.
      Posted on: 2018-06-13 13:11:38   By: Anonymous
       
      The Big Red Wave is Coming!

      [Reply ]

        Re: still a dead horse...but you morons keep beating it.
        Posted on: 2018-06-13 13:13:02   By: Anonymous
         
        And grabbing pussies along the way I am sure

        [Reply ]

          Re: still a dead horse...but you morons keep beating it.
          Posted on: 2018-06-13 16:49:03   By: Anonymous
           
          What's wrong with that! You must be Gay

          [Reply ]

            HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
            Posted on: 2018-06-13 17:57:34   By: Anonymous
             


            [Reply ]

      Profanity
      Posted on: 2018-06-13 15:12:39   By: Anonymous
       
      Profanity

      [Reply ]

    Re: dead fish on the banks and floating
    Posted on: 2018-06-13 13:12:28   By: Anonymous
     
    Really!!!!!
    Then why is the Dotard still campaigning against her?
    Because he is is an ignorant fool, like his inbred followers
    Tell the dictator the election was 2 years ago, and he won
    Although 78,000 votes in 3 states somehow Trumps(how sadly ironic) a loss by 3 MILLION VOTES of the POPULAR, yes that is POPULAR votes
    Mueller is going to bring him down
    THANK GOD
    That would be the REAL God not the FAKE Evangelical god that supports a lying, racist, womanizing Piece of sh-t!!!!!!

    [Reply ]

      Re: dead fish on the banks and floating
      Posted on: 2018-06-13 15:00:41   By: Anonymous
       
      Broglio

      [Reply ]

      Re: dead fish on the banks and floating
      Posted on: 2018-06-13 15:14:11   By: Anonymous
       
      HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! WAAAAAAAAAAAA, WAAAAAAAAAA.....MOMMY? CAN I COME UP FROM THE BASEMENT? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

      [Reply ]

        Re: dead fish on the banks and floating
        Posted on: 2018-06-13 16:51:04   By: Anonymous
         
        I sure enjoyed doing your daughter at big trees state park last sunday.

        [Reply ]

          Re: dead fish on the banks and floating
          Posted on: 2018-06-13 16:52:55   By: Anonymous
           
          Forget the basement, you come out of the closet now!!

          [Reply ]

No Subject
Posted on: 2018-06-13 18:18:56   By: Anonymous
 
There is no such thing as non violent crime.

When you steal something, you are not committing a crime against a thing, you are committing a crime against the owner.

Bullet to the head for violent criminals.

[Reply ]

    Re:
    Posted on: 2018-06-13 19:57:19   By: Anonymous
     
    But what about friendly crime? You know, like I just wanted to share your stuff?

    [Reply ]

      Re:
      Posted on: 2018-06-13 20:38:34   By: Anonymous
       
      Gloop.

      [Reply ]

        Re:
        Posted on: 2018-06-14 06:09:37   By: Anonymous
         
        F U GLOOP

        [Reply ]

      Re:
      Posted on: 2018-06-14 01:19:17   By: Anonymous
       
      That would only require a bullet to the heart.

      [Reply ]


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